Conditions of Supply

The IEA’s Energy and AI analysis puts the 2024 global electricity supply for data centres at about 30% coal, 27% renewables, 26% gas and 15% nuclear, and it expects gas and coal together to meet over 40% of additional demand through 2030, when data-centre generation passes 1,000 terawatt-hours from 460 terawatt-hours in 2024.⁶ The IEA also reports that natural gas, at over 40%, is currently the largest source of electricity for data centres in the United States.⁶

Malaysia’s Communications Minister Fahmi Fadzil said on 14 October that the government is building a sovereign AI cloud to keep classified information out of reach of foreign laws and policies, managed by the Malaysian Communications and Multimedia Commission and the ministry.⁷ The report names no amount, vendor or delivery date, and the 5 billion ringgit (RM5bn) in Budget 2027 goes to the national digital network JENDELA rather than the cloud. In the US, Oregon’s governor has asked the state environmental regulator to pause data-centre permits, described in an industry roundup as a de facto moratorium, and Memphis delayed a decision on a proposed 12-month moratorium.⁸

Presidential adviser Serhiy Beskrestnov said on 14 October that SpaceX had restricted Starshield, its military service, without warning, and he described a 160 km/h speed limit, while a Ukrainian Defence Ministry source told Reuters that guidance systems lost connection at under half that speed.¹⁰ Reports differ on which service carries the 160 km/h figure: Meduza, citing Ukrainska Pravda, attributes it to standard Starlink terminals on drones, with Starshield used for faster flight.¹¹ Musk wrote on X that limits on speed or usage are decided by the US military and, ultimately, the US President.¹⁰ Reuters reported on 15 October, citing three unnamed officials, that White House officials told Pentagon leaders to limit Starshield, and a senior US official told Axios that Trump made no such request, which need not conflict with the Reuters account, and the origin of the order has not been independently confirmed.¹² Mykhailo Fedorov said on 14 October that service up to 160 km/h was being restored and that removing the Starshield limits was the next task.¹³

Yandex said on 11 October that a Vladimir data centre had halted fully after a drone strike, its third site struck in a week after the Sasovo and Kaluga sites reported in Issue 025.¹⁴ Sber confirmed a drone attack on its Balakovo data centre in Saratov Region, a site planned to exceed 80 megawatts at full build-out, and said its services run normally, and Data Center Dynamics attributes the strike to Ukraine’s military.¹⁵ In Ukraine, the internet provider TENET reported significant damage to cooling and power generation equipment at its Odesa site after a strike on the evening of 10 October, which Liga.net attributes to Russia, and warned that some subscribers may lose access.¹⁶ Trump’s 11 October announcement of an energy ceasefire did not define energy infrastructure, and none of the reports cited here says whether data centres or telecom sites fall within it.¹² For satellite buyers, the open question is who may change service parameters, with what notice and with what contractual remedy. For conflict-zone data centres, the open question is whether supposedly separate workloads depend on the same power and cooling systems, and how quickly they can move elsewhere.

The two ministries published Announcement No. 48 on 16 October as a draft revision adding 40 technologies, of which 23 are in AI, 12 in solar and 5 in biomedicine, with comments open until 15 November and technologies already public through open-source release or academic publication excluded.¹⁷ The catalogue changes are proposed, while pre-export registration has already begun: it applies from 16 October, covers exports started but not completed, and extends to transfers of technology ownership abroad, overseas licensing of domestic technology and changes that place it under foreign ownership or control.¹⁷ The Next Web reports that the AI items cover model weights and source code for models with at least 2 trillion parameters or a top-10 ranking, AI agents, chip-design know-how at 14 nanometres or below or using 2.5D or 3D stacking, and computing clusters, and the item list was not independently confirmed.¹⁸

Bloomberg reported on 16 October that Taiwan plans to add AI servers and advanced semiconductors to its controlled-commodities list, with Economic Affairs Minister Kung Ming-hsin confirming criminal liability for unauthorised exports to China, and a secondary report adds that the list would replace the existing named restrictions on Huawei and the Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) with a restriction covering all Chinese buyers.¹⁹ No implementation date is given, and the plan follows the US-Taiwan trade pact of 15 January 2026. The two measures act at different points: Beijing is registering transfers of its own technology and proposing to widen its catalogue, and Taipei would tighten who can receive AI servers. Operators with Chinese-origin AI technology, licensing arrangements or ownership links could screen them against the registration rule now, and server distributors and cloud buyers with Taiwanese supply could review end-customer screening.

The draft requires at least 60% of annual electricity consumption from renewable sources, met through direct connection to nearby generation and storage or through power purchase agreements (PPAs), and letters of guarantee of €200,000 per megawatt (MW) with a three-year duration, and the operator would provide a three-year connection offer when ready.²⁰²¹ The Independent Power Transmission Operator (IPTO, known as ADMIE) would license data centres above 10 MW and the Hellenic Electricity Distribution Network Operator (HEDNO) those below that capacity, projects may not be split to qualify for simpler rules, and extra-high-voltage substations would be classed as free, partially congested or fully congested with estimates updated every two months.²⁰ Data centres above 200 MW would receive connection priority if they show that 80% of their electricity comes from a distributed producer or from storage with six-hour injection duration, investors would bear the full cost of connection and grid reinforcement, and grid operators would publish available capacity by region every three months.²⁰²¹

IPTO reported that connection applications rose from 5 gigawatts to 9 gigawatts in two months over the summer, and the draft would put a guarantee behind each application.²⁰ For a 200 MW project the face amount of the guarantee is €40m, and the cost to the sponsor depends on how the guarantee is provided. Consultation runs to 24 October, and the reports reviewed do not specify penalties.²¹ Issue 021 reported Spain’s draft decree requiring data centres above 1 MW to match 80% of consumption with new renewable generation on an hourly basis, whereas Greece’s draft measures renewable sourcing annually and ties eligibility and connection priority to guarantees, supply type and substation congestion. Developers with Greek pipelines could test how many applications would survive a guarantee, and lenders could ask how the 60% requirement would be evidenced.

Reuters reported on 14 October, citing unnamed sources, extensive damage and fire across several floors of Aramco’s Dhahran headquarters after an attack on Tuesday night (13 October), with the top three floors severely damaged, operations continuing normally and no claim of responsibility reported, while the Saudi energy ministry described a limited fire.²² In the Strait of Hormuz, a projectile struck the Singapore-flagged container ship GFS Pride on 13 October and the ship sank with all 21 crew evacuated, and US Central Command and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy each claim control of the strait.²³ An April report put the strait’s closure at 28 February, with QatarEnergy declaring force majeure on 4 March and about 20% of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply affected, while gCaptain reports commercial transits continuing below pre-war levels.²⁴²³ The 12 October Brent settlement preceded the attack on Aramco’s headquarters.⁹

The US Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) issued General License 135 on 9 October authorising transactions related to the sale, delivery, offloading and importation of Russian-origin diesel until 7 April 2027, and one market analysis of its text says it sets no maximum quantity and names no buyer or supplier.²⁵²⁶²⁷ Trump’s 9 October post cited 300,000 tonnes immediately, and the larger tranches rest on that post alone. Twelve senators urged revocation on 13 October and 22 House members did so on 15 October, and gasoil fell after the announcement while analysts doubted a near-term effect.²⁶⁹ Coal and gas supplied more than half of data-centre electricity in 2024 (§4). Operators with gas-indexed power contracts could review price pass-through, LNG disruption is a separate route into gas prices, and operators buying backup diesel could confirm their sanctions exposure where the US licence and the unchanged EU and UK bans apply to the same contracts.²⁷

Scores are editorial assessments on a 0 to 100 scale, where higher means greater risk. A weekly change records this week’s evidence moving the assessment and does not correspond to a measured series.

• 01
  For satellite connectivity buyers on military-grade or government-controlled service: who can change speed or usage limits, with what notice, and what happens to contracted missions or revenue if a limit is imposed without warning?

  Starshield limits, Reuters via Otago Daily Times, 15 Oct 2026; Reuters via Euromaidan Press, 16 Oct 2026
• 02
  For data-centre positions in or near active conflict: do power and cooling at a single site serve as the common point of failure for replicas that appear independent, and how long would workloads take to move?

  Odesa and Vladimir strikes, Liga.net, 10 Oct 2026; Al Jazeera, 11 Oct 2026

• 03
  For operators with Chinese-origin AI technology, licensing arrangements or ownership links: which transfers, licences or ownership changes would fall under pre-export registration, and what lead time would apply to completing them?

  MOFCOM and MOST Announcement No. 48, 16 Oct 2026
• 04
  For server distributors and cloud buyers with Taiwanese supply: how would end-customer screening change if AI servers join Taiwan’s controlled-commodities list and unauthorised shipment to China becomes a criminal offence, and what lead time would apply?

  Taiwan export controls, Startup Fortune, 16 Oct 2026

• 05
  For Greek data-centre pipelines: how many applications could post a €200,000 per megawatt guarantee, evidence 60% renewable supply and meet the 80% condition for connection priority above 200 MW?

  Greek draft rules, Balkan Green Energy News, 12 Oct 2026; Enerdata, 14 Oct 2026
• 06
  For UK fibre positions: which remedies the CMA could accept on nexfibre and Substantial, and which conditions on BT’s acquisition of TalkTalk, would change the investment case?

  Capacity, 2 Oct 2026; Capacity, 5 Oct 2026

• 07
  For platforms with power purchase agreements or fuel contracts exposed to gas and oil prices: which contracts index to gas, which pass price changes to customers, and have exposures to Russian-origin diesel been checked against both the US licence and the EU and UK bans?

  IEA energy supply analysis, Apr 2025; OFAC, 9 Oct 2026; Nation Thailand, 13 Oct 2026

• Starshield and comparable service terms should be reviewed for who may change limits and on what notice, and shared power and cooling dependencies at conflict-zone data-centre sites should be mapped. Starshield limits reported on 14 October were imposed without warning, and TENET reported damage to cooling and power generation equipment at Odesa on 10 October.
• Transfers, licences and ownership links involving Chinese AI technology should be screened against the registration rule, with comments filed before 15 November, and fuel contracts checked for Russian-origin diesel under the US licence and the EU and UK bans. Registration applies from 16 October and covers exports started but not completed, and the US licence and the EU and UK bans diverge.
• Greek project pipelines should be checked against the draft’s guarantee, annual renewable and congestion provisions before consultation closes on 24 October. Grid connection applications rose from 5 gigawatts to 9 gigawatts in two months.

• Workload separation and resilience changes at conflict-zone sites could be scoped once shared power and cooling dependencies are mapped. Replicas that depend on one site’s power and cooling do not provide independent resilience.
• Power and fuel procurement could be restructured where gas indexation and pass-through terms leave costs exposed. Coal and gas supplied about 56% of data-centre electricity in 2024, and backup-diesel procurement is a separate exposure.

• Each portfolio asset’s dependence on third-party-controlled connectivity, export-controlled hardware and grid-constrained sites could be assessed ahead of the next hold-or-exit decision. This week’s service restrictions and regulatory proposals expose dependencies that can be tested before the next decision.